Guizhou Moutai (600519) Semi-annual Report Comment: Steady Growth and Adjust Structure

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Semi-annual Report Comment: Steady Growth and Adjust Structure
Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report.In the first half of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 39.5 billion yuan, an increase of 18 year-on-year.24%; net profit attributable to mothers is 2 million yuan, an increase of 26 year-on-year.75%; of which Q2 revenue was 178.44 ppm, an increase of 12% over ten years, and Q2 net profit attributable to mothers was 87.60 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.71%. In terms of products, the growth rate of Moutai and series of wines is basically synchronized.2019H1 Moutai liquor revenue is 347.USD 9.5 billion, an annual increase of 18%, of which Q2 Maotai wine revenue was 152.970,000 yuan, an increase of 12% in ten years. According to calculations, the report corresponds to about 1 sales of 19H1 Moutai.In May, the annual growth rate was about 10%, slightly higher than the channel tracking.At the end of the second quarter, the advance receipts increased by 8 from the previous month.72 billion.Excluding the factor of advance receipts, the actual growth rate of revenue in the second quarter exceeded 30% (the amount of advance receipts in the second quarter of 2018 decreased by 3.2 billion from the previous month. If the effect of advance receipts is excluded, the actual shipment is expected to be about 5,500 tons). 2019H1 Series Wine Revenue 46.55 ppm, an increase of 17% per year, and Q2 wine revenue of 25.2.3 billion, an annual increase of 10%. We believe that the main series wine distributors, which have the fastest growth in series wine revenue, are attracting investment. In terms of different channels, the proportion of direct sales dropped slightly.19H1 direct sales channel revenue 16.2.0 billion, down 38% before, accounting for 4%.1%, a decline of 3 per year.7 units.Of which Q2 direct sales channel revenue5.100 million, down 57% before, accounting for 2%.9%, down 4 each year.6 averages, we think that the decrease in the proportion of direct sales is mainly due to the decrease in the proportion of e-commerce and batch wine.We expect the group marketing company to properly coordinate the relationship between all parties, rationalize the interests of all parties, promote the implementation of direct sales programs, and look forward to the volume of direct sales in the second half of the year.As for dealers, the number of domestic dealers at the end of the reporting period was 2,415, a decrease of 5,93 dealers from the end of 2018, and a decrease of 39 from the end of the first quarter. The structure optimization and merger expense ratio decreased, and profitability increased steadily.The growth rate of Q2 performance was significantly expected and the growth rate of revenue was mainly due to the improvement of profitability.19Q2 gross profit margin 91.57%, increase by 1 every year.03pct, mainly due to the improvement of product structure and the promotion of the price of wine per ton.In the first half of the year, the proportion of Moutai non-standard products (year wine, zodiac wine, boutique wine) increased significantly, and the structure of the series of wine products was also optimized.In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio for the second quarter of 2019 was 5.97%, down by 1 every year.47pct, management expense ratio 6.97%, a decline of 0 every year.48 points. Cash flow performance was benign, and advance receipts increased slightly from the previous quarter.In the first half 武汉夜生活网 of 2019, the company’s cash received from selling goods and providing services and net cash flow from operating activities were 433.2.9 billion / 240.8.7 billion, an increase of 25% / 36% over the same period, of which net cash flow from operating activities in 19Q2 was 228.9.8 billion, an increase of 79% over the same period. Cash received from sales of goods and labor services205.7.1 billion, an increase of 35% over the same period.The growth rate of net cash flow in Q2 was significantly faster than the growth rate of cash flow from the sale of goods and services, mainly due to the absorption of interbank deposit balances of 235.6.6 billion, an increase of 120 every year.9.3 billion. Profit forecast: The EPS for 2019-2021 is forecasted to be 34.11 yuan, 40.29 yuan, 47.04 yuan, an increase of 21 a year.7%, 18.1%, 16.8%, 北京夜网 currently corresponding PE is 28 respectively.4x, 24.0x, 20.6x, maintain BUY rating.The target price is 1130 yuan, corresponding to 28 times the price-earnings ratio in 2019. Risk reminder: Macroeconomic growth gradually leads to lower-than-expected demand for high-end wines; Moutai approval prices change significantly.